DOW-UAP-D094_Analysis-of-Flying-Object-Incidents-in-the-US_1949

Authority: NND 857011 ,. ' 1 • ... LO.Alf DOCUDIM' l T/S COITIOL 10. - · - - -- 2-73.frl 'f OFYICE TO WHI~H LQlHD AFOill-2.A. _____ ___ ,__~ • I - ■ I ·- 89A DiT! DUi IN AFOIM-C/DD _,l_l_ul;r ~-~52 PLEASE RETURN THIS DOCUMF.JfT. OR DATE SPIClfliD !fK>VI TO AFOIN...C/DD. ROOII • IO. 50116 J.TTIITIOlh M' WM! COlffftOL 01'FICD • When the attached docum•nt 1s withdrawn the clses1f1cat1on of thi• .. ahe•t wil1 be chan~•d to UlfCLASSIFIKD in accordance with PAR 250, ll'R 205-1.i ... Air Intelligence Report No. 100-203-79. ANALYSIS OF FLYING OB ECT INCIDENTS IN THE U. S. Air Intelligence Division Study No. 203 10 December 1948. Directorate of Intelligence and Office of Naval Intelligence DISTRIBUTION ''C'' WARNING: This document contains information affecting the national defense of the United States within the meaning of the Espionage Act, 60 U.S.C., 31 and 32, as amended. Its transmission or the revelation of its contents in any manner to an .. unauthorized person is prohibited by law. in this publication, under the provisions of Army , 60 U.S.C., 31 and 32, as amended. Its transmission or the revelation of its contents in any manner to an .. unauthorized person is prohibited by law. in this publication, under the provisions of Army Regulation Reproduction of the intelligence 380-5, indicated. is authorized for United States military agencies provided the source is Directorate of Intelligence Headquarters United States Air Force Office of Naval Intelligence Navy Department Washington, D. C, DECLASSIFIED .. Page 1 3 3 3 4 6 ANALYSIS OF FLYING OB ECT lliCIDENTS IN THE U. S. INDEX SUM:MARY AND CONCLUSIONS . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . APPENDIX "A" - ANALYSIS OF FLYING OB CT INCIDENTS IN THE U. S. Iritroduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Some Aspects Regarding Flying Object Incidents Possible Origin of Unusual Flying Objects . . . . . . . . ' . . Possible Reasons or Tactics for the Use of Soviet Unconventional Aircraft Over the U. S. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 ' • 7 8 17 17 , S. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 ' • 7 8 17 17 , . 21 23 APPENDIX "B" - REPORTED SIGHTINGS OF FLYING CTS AS OF APPENDIX "C,, - SELECTED REPORTS OF FLYING OBI CT INCIDENTS . . . APPENDIX "D" - FLYING WING TYPE AIRCRAFT • • . . . ' . . Germany . . . Great Britain • United States • ♦ • • - i - It • •• MP l!Clt!, ANALYSIS OF FLYING OB ECT INCIDENTS IN THE U. S. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS PROBLEM 1. TO EXA:MlNE pattern of tactics of "Flying Saucers" (hereinafter referred to as flying objects) and to develop conclusions as to the possibility of existence. FACTS AND DISCUSSION 2. A DETAILED discussion of information bearing on the problem as set forth above 1s attached as Appendix "A". The main points established therein are summarized below. • 3. THE FREQUENCY of reported incidents, the similarity in many of the characteristics attributed to the observed objects and the quality of observers considered as a whole, support the contention that some type of flying object has been observed. Approximately 210 incidents have been reported. similarity in many of the characteristics attributed to the observed objects and the quality of observers considered as a whole, support the contention that some type of flying object has been observed. Approximately 210 incidents have been reported. Among the observers reporting on such incidents are trained and experienced U.S. Weather Bureau personnel, USAF rated officers, experienced civilian pilots, technicians associated with various re­ search projects and technicians employed. by commercial airlines. 4. THE POSSIBILITY that reported observations of flying objects over the U.S. were influenced by previous sightings of unidentified phenomena in Europe, particularly over Scandinavia 1n 1948, • and that the observers reporting such incidents may have been interested in obtaining personal pubUcity have been considered as possible explanations. However, these posslb111t1es seem to be improbable when certain selected reports such as the one from U.S. Weather Bureau at Richmond are examined. During observations of weather balloons at the Richmond Bureau, one well trained observer has sighted strange metallic disks on three occasions and another observer has sighted a similar object on one occasion. The last observation of un1denttf1ed objects was in Apr1i, 1947. On all four occa­ sions the weather balloon and the unidentified objects were in view through the theodolite. These observations at the Richmond Bureau occurred several months before publ1city on the flying saucers appeared in a all four occa­ sions the weather balloon and the unidentified objects were in view through the theodolite. These observations at the Richmond Bureau occurred several months before publ1city on the flying saucers appeared in a U.S. newspaper. 5. DESCRIPTIONS OF the flying objects fall lnto three configurat1on categories: (2) rough cigar-shaped {3) balls of fire. Varying conditions of visibility and differences in angles at which the objects may have been viewed introduces a possibility that a single type object may have been observed rather than three different types. This possibility is further substantiated by the fact that 1n the areas where such objects have been observed the ratio of the three general configurations is approximately the same. (1) disk-shaped 6. THEREFORE, IT appears that some object has been seen; however, the identification of that object cannot be readily; accomplished on the basis of information reported on each incident. It ls possible that the object, or objects, may have been domestically launched devices such as weather It is necessary to balloons, rockets, experimental flying wlng aircraft, or celestial phenomena. obtain information on such domestic activity to confirm or deny this possibility. Depending upon the degree with which this may be accomplished, foreign devices must then be considered as a possibility. .. 7. THE PATTERN of sightings is definable. Sightings ~ave to confirm or deny this possibility. Depending upon the degree with which this may be accomplished, foreign devices must then be considered as a possibility. .. 7. THE PATTERN of sightings is definable. Sightings ~ave been most intense throughout the states bordering the Atlantic and Pacific coast lines, and the central states of Ohio and Kentucky. A map showing location of sightings is attached as Appendix "B" ~•• 11c11, - 1 - 8. THE ORIGIN of the devices is not ascertainable. There are two reasonable possibllltles: (1) The objects are domestic devices, and if so, their identification or origin can be established by a survey of all launchings of airborne objects. Domestic flying wing type aircraft observed in various aspects of flight might be responsible for some of the reported flying objects, particu­ larly those described as disks and rough cigar shapes. (See Appendices "C" and ''D" .) Among those which have been operational in recent years are the XF5U-1 ("Flying Flap3ack") developed by Chance-Vaught, the Northrup B-35, and the turbo-jet powered Northrup YB-49. · The present .existence of any privately developed flying-wing type aircraft has not been determined but one such aircraft, the Arup tailless monoplane, was operational at South Bend, Indiana, prior to 1935. (2) Objects The present .existence of any privately developed flying-wing type aircraft has not been determined but one such aircraft, the Arup tailless monoplane, was operational at South Bend, Indiana, prior to 1935. (2) Objects are foreign, and l:f so, it would seem most logical to consider that they are from a Soviet source. The Soviets possess information on a number of German flying-wing type aircraft such as the Gotha P60A, Junkers EF 130 long-range, high-speed jet bomber and the Horten 229 twin-jet fighter, which particularly resembles some of the description of un1denttfied flying objects (See Appendix "D"). As early as 1924 Tscheranowsky developed a "Parabola" aircraft, an all wing • design, which was the outcome of considerable Soviet experimentation with gliders of the same general form. Soviet aircrait based on such designs might have speeds approaching trans­ ~;onic speeds attributed to some flying objects or greater over-all performance assuming the successful development of some unusual propulsion device such as atomic energy engine. 9. THAT THE Soviets have a current interest in flying-wing type aircraft is suggested by their utilization of Dr. Guenther Bock who, at the end of. World Wa:r IT, was in charge of the flylng­ wlng program in Germany (See Appendix ''A", paragraph 3, page 4 ) . Achievements of Dr. Guenther Bock who, at the end of. World Wa:r IT, was in charge of the flylng­ wlng program in Germany (See Appendix ''A", paragraph 3, page 4 ) . Achievements satisfactory to the U.S.S.R. are indirectly indicated by the personal recognition he is reported to be receiving in the U.S.S.R. Recently 1t has been reported that the U.S.S.R. 1s planning to build a fleet of 1,800 Horten flying-wing aircraft. regiment of jet night fighters, Model Horten xm, is at Kuzm1kha, an air base two mE.es south­ west of Irkutsk. Kuzmikha is identified as one of a number of airfields for the protection of an atomic energy plant at Irkutsk. The Horten XIII as developed by Germany was a glider, Information· of low evaluation has been received stating that a 10. ASSUMING THAT the objects might eventually be identified as foreign or foreign-sponsored devices, the possible reason for their appearance over the U.S. requires consideration. Several possible explanations appear noteworthy, vi.z: a. To negate U.S. confidence in the atom bomb as the most advanced and decisive weapon in warfare. b. To perform photographic reconnaissance missions, c. To test U. S. air defenses. d. To conduct familiarization flights over U.S. territory. CONCLUSIONS 11. bomb as the most advanced and decisive weapon in warfare. b. To perform photographic reconnaissance missions, c. To test U. S. air defenses. d. To conduct familiarization flights over U.S. territory. CONCLUSIONS 11. SINCE the Air Force is responsible for control of the air in the defense of the U.S., it is imperative that a.ll other agencies cooperate in confirming or denying the possibility that these objects have a domestic origin. Otherwise, if it is firmly indicated that there 1s no domestic explanation, the objects are a threat and warrant more active efforts of 1dent1fication and inter­ ception. 12. rr MUST be accepted that some type of flying objects have bean observed, although their identification and origin are not d1scernable. In the interest of national defense it would be unwise to overlook the possibility that some of these objects may be of foreign origin. - 2 - - .iaa IEIIIE'l 0 APPENDIX "A" ANALYSIS OF FLYING OB· CT INCIDENTS IN THE U. S. AND HYPOTHETICAL TACTICS EMPLOYED 1. INTRODUCTION. To formulate the possible tactics of flying objects reported over the U. S. assumes ?rom he outset that firm conclusions have been reached on .both the existence and origin o! the reported flying objects. The current status of information on such incidents and over flying objects reported over the U. S. assumes ?rom he outset that firm conclusions have been reached on .both the existence and origin o! the reported flying objects. The current status of information on such incidents and over•all analysis does not allow substantiation for such conclusions. However, the lack of such firm con­ clusions points to the necessity for an immediate and sound statistical analysis of every aspect of the situation and does not preclude a concurrent examination of the reported incidents to develop explanations of their possible tactics. The latter will be useful at some future date should the existence and origin of the flying objects be definitely established. Therefore, the following analy­ sis of available information is advanced in order to present evidence on the actual existence of some type flying object and to relate same to tactical purposes for which the objects are possibly designed. The following discussion must be considered a provisional analysis, pending a further detailed analysis of all aspects of the problem. 2. SOME ASPECTS REGARDING FLYING OB CT INCIDENTS. A cursory examination of evidence on repo certain generalities which it appears may be borne out when detailed analyses have been completed. s poss n Among the incidents reported there are many statements by reliable and experienced persons whlch tend to confirm that flying objects have been seen. The description of such objects seems (1 detailed analyses have been completed. s poss n Among the incidents reported there are many statements by reliable and experienced persons whlch tend to confirm that flying objects have been seen. The description of such objects seems (1) Silver disks or balls, approximating a Horten wing type to fall roughly into three categories: aircraft; (2) Balls of fire of various colors and intensities; (3) Cigar or pencil-shaped objects similar in appearance to V -2 type rockets in horizontal flight. The numbers of configurations might be further reduced with the following considerations in mind: Silver disks or balls have, for the greater part, been observed in daylight and a number under clear weather conditions with Iri most instances, balls of fire have been observed at night. Cigar, or visibility unlimited. pencil-shaped objects have been sighted in fewer numbers but with about equal distrlbuUon 1n dayllght and at night. A few accounts tell of the disks having a rough cigar-shape when viewed while maneuvering. Some of the disks are described as having luminosity in daylight. It there­ fore is possible that a single type of object may be involved in all slghtlngs, and differences ln description may result from viewing the objects at various angles and under dlffering conditions of visibility. The above tends to indicate that some type object ha~ been seen and involved in all slghtlngs, and differences ln description may result from viewing the objects at various angles and under dlffering conditions of visibility. The above tends to indicate that some type object ha~ been seen and the possibility exists that the object or objects seen are conventional domestic devices, such as weather balloons, test rockets, or jet-equipped aircraft with pancake or flying wing configurations. The possibillty exists that the reporting of flying objects may have been influenced by earlier reports on similar incidents in Scandinavia and Central Europe. The publication in newspaper of details on such incidents, both foreign and domestic, may have induced eome of the description provided in reported domestic incidents. However, one of the earliest reported sightings in the U.S. was the one observed by U.S. Weather Bureau personnel in April 1947, at Richmond, Virginia, It would seem that and on the basis of this one report it appears that the disks are not balloons. this sighting was not influenced by the reports of foreign incidents, the newspaper accounts of domestic incidents, nor by misident1.f1cation of a conventional object. :. 3 - Although reported domestic incidents are widely scattered throughout the U.S., frequency of sighting and number of observers per sighting assumes a definable pattern. There ls a large con­ centration of sightings along the Eastern Seaboard; another large concentration throughout the are widely scattered throughout the U.S., frequency of sighting and number of observers per sighting assumes a definable pattern. There ls a large con­ centration of sightings along the Eastern Seaboard; another large concentration throughout the Western Coast states, and a few sightings in the Middle West. Distribution of. incidents by con- figuration af object and description of maneuverability is approximately equal 1n each of these areas and this ls belleved to further substantiate the possibility that one type of object might have been observed In dl:fferent aspects of flight. • . k ?f sightings are induced by rumor, it seems unusual that more incidents have not been reported from the areas with high concentration of population. Reports from such areas would also have greater facility 1n channeling either to newspaper or official reporting agencies. For the most part, sightings have been made in fairly open country where there are few restrictions to visibility, which may indicate that obstructed vision has reduced sightings 1n bullt-up areas. It therefore seems that some type of flying object has been observed; the ldentlftcatlon of its origin requires the compet1on of other analyses. 3. POSSIBLE ORlGIN OF UNUSUAL FLYING O CTS. Provided, upon the completion of. analyses, it is'ln<nciite~ffiar-iroi:ne01::-S:!rof'truri:wor1:ec the objects could from a POSSIBLE ORlGIN OF UNUSUAL FLYING O CTS. Provided, upon the completion of. analyses, it is'ln<nciite~ffiar-iroi:ne01::-S:!rof'truri:wor1:ec the objects could from a logical viewpoint, be considered Soviet. ance characteristics attributed to the unidentified objects at this time that if they are foreign, they involve efficiencies of performance which have not been realized in any operational airborne device in this country. It would, therefore, be a mistake to analyze the technical aspects of the situation within the limits of our own knowledge of practical developments. n ls more desirable to consider then the outer limits of possible .soviet developments and objectives ln attempting to formulate some idea of the tactics which might be involved. bjects over the U.S. are of foreign origin, It is evident' from the pertorm­ First of all, the scientific objectives of the U .S.S.R. have been stated many times and Jndicated 1n many forms. The most clearcut statement of this objective ls probably the one contained in the preamble to the Fourth Five-year Plan (1946-1950} which states that the objective of Soviet .science ls to overtake and surpass the scientific and technical developments of the capitalist nations. apparently would be an impossible task for the Soviet Union to accomplish such an objective by pro­ ceeding step-by-step along the same lines of to overtake and surpass the scientific and technical developments of the capitalist nations. apparently would be an impossible task for the Soviet Union to accomplish such an objective by pro­ ceeding step-by-step along the same lines of development already achieved in the capitalist nations. This would mean that. lt would be necessary to rapidly proceed through each phase of aeronautical development that has already been accomplished in this country, and this obably would never• have by the U.S. The obvious any prospects of accelerating Soviet development beyond any point reach answer to accomplish their objective of not only overtaking, but surpassing the capitalist countries would be a scient1flc shortcut. This possibllity ls not so remote when examined on the basis of our knowledge of the current situation 1n the U .S.S.R. Provided Soviet emphasis was given to the most promising and advanced ideas acquired from Germany 1n 1946 and the work aided by German scientists, the possibility of catching up and possibly .surpassing other nations 1n technical develop­ ments becomes more realistic. • It becomes even more realistic l:f the Soviets have shown a tendency to concentrate on certain developments which have still not received a maximum of priority in our own programs. It n 1s known that the U.S.S.R. has since 1945 enlisted the services of Dr. Guenther Bock, a German who headed have still not received a maximum of priority in our own programs. It n 1s known that the U.S.S.R. has since 1945 enlisted the services of Dr. Guenther Bock, a German who headed all development of low aspect ratio (flying wing) type aircraft in Germany. Dr. Bock is believed to be the top German scientist In charge at TSAGI and TSIAM which are "Air Materiel Command" type organizatlons ln the U.S.S.R. Further, it is believed that Dr. Bock has made available all German plans for flying wing type aircraft to the Soviets. Among the de­ signs considered by the Germans and possibly explolted by the U.S.S.R., are jet-propelled, flying wing type aircraft whose configuration would be similar to descriptions of certain objects reported flying over the U.S. The estimated speeds of such aircraft are within range of the lower limits. of speed attributed to flying objects over the U.s. It ls not impossible that emphasis on surpassing foreign developments has led to unusual progress 1n fuels and propulsion by the U .S.S.R. nection with possible advancements 1n the field at fuels and propulsion, it should be observed that In con­ - 4 - • the Russian oll situation (regardless of estimated 011 reserves) is quite dl:fferent from that 1n the U.S. For example, U.S and propulsion, it should be observed that In con­ - 4 - • the Russian oll situation (regardless of estimated 011 reserves) is quite dl:fferent from that 1n the U.S. For example, U.S. oil industry 1s prepared to turn out tremendous quantities of highly frac­ tionated petroleum products, while the U .S.S.R. cannot reasonably approach such capabilities. This consideration dictates different solutions on fuels for propulsion 1n the two countries and in turn, dictates the direction taken in development of jet motors or the use of other propulsive devices. We must therefore, arrive at the. conclusion that any Soviet device which may have made its appearance over the U.S. as descrlb~d, would possess unusual performance characterist1cs which, in all probability, would include unusual range. The poss1b111ty that they could have been launched at fairly close range should not be discarded. 4. POSSIBLE REASONS OR TACTICS FOR THE USE OF SOVIET UNCONVENTIONAL AIRCRAFT fi ve 15 flown over the U.S. for one, all, or a combination of the following reasons: a. TO NEGATE U.S. CONFIDENCE IN ATOM BOMB AS THE MOST ADVANC DECISIVE ego a o sense, tliaf1lie'Soviets would choose first to frighten pro-American nations in Europe with the appearance of a radically new weapon . CONFIDENCE IN ATOM BOMB AS THE MOST ADVANC DECISIVE ego a o sense, tliaf1lie'Soviets would choose first to frighten pro-American nations in Europe with the appearance of a radically new weapon to counteract the ability of the U.S. to obtain full propaganda effective­ It will be remembered that strange objects first appeared over the ness with the atom bomb. Scandinavian countries 1n 1946. The objects observed there had unusual range and unusual per­ formance characteristics. As this demonstration over the Scandinavian countries occurred the U.S. was making a vigorous campaign for the economic and political allgnment of these nations with other pro-American Western European nations. When these incidents. subsided, strange flying objects began to be observed at an increasing rate over the U.S. The conclusion on thls point is that flying objects may have been used to frighten both European nations and the U.S. by the appear­ ance of a new device, and that failure to identify such a Soviet object would give them invaluable indication that U.s. development is far behind that of the Soviets. Except for this indication, it is beUeved that the use of the objects to promote fear has been worthless 1n that the U.S. public has tended to characterize these incidents entirely as halluclnations by "crack pots", m1sident1ficat1 eved that the use of the objects to promote fear has been worthless 1n that the U.S. public has tended to characterize these incidents entirely as halluclnations by "crack pots", m1sident1ficat1on of conventional objects, or that they represent a secret American project which should not be pub­ licized. Any fear· that might result from Soviet use will come only by a discovery that the objects have been Soviet aircraft and that they involve radical developments which are in advance of. our own accomplishments. or b. FOR PHOTOGRAPHIC RECONNAISSANCE. e co ec on It ls possible that the Soviets have employed the p o ograp c intelligence or the mapping of certain areas in the flying o ec U.S. The evasive action employed by all objects sighted indicates not so much an attempt to avoid pelng sighted, as an attempt to prevent disclosure of the exact type of flying craft and its mission. The sighting of objects over the U.S. has been most intense in Eastern and Western Coastal States. In addition, sightings of flying objects have been made near Oak Ridge, Tenn., Las Cruces, N. M., and in the general area o! the Hanford Works in Oregon. Generally, sightings have not been made over what we consider strategic industrial areas. The reason for this. might be either that the. flying objects M., and in the general area o! the Hanford Works in Oregon. Generally, sightings have not been made over what we consider strategic industrial areas. The reason for this. might be either that the. flying objects have been observed only enroute to or from missions over these more concentrated strategic areas, or that the Soviets obtained sufficient information during their World War Il liaison with U.S. industry to satisfy their intelligence requirements and have a more active requirement for information on industries and areas which were not available to them during World War TI con­ tacts. This 1s of interest in connection with the sightings near Oak Ridge, Las Cruces, and in the general area of the Hanford· Works since these establishments were not, and are not, accessible to Soviet collectors of photographic intelligence . ... o y o e erm e . c. TEST OF U. S. DEFENSES. It 1s possible that the use of Soviet flying objects over the U.S. e ability of the U.S. defenses to spot foreig